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Time for another award-winning installment* of Ten Games At A Time, in which
I make predictions on how the Hawks will perform in the next ten games while
taking a look back to see how I did on the previous ten-game forecast.
Note: This was written on the plane home Friday night, but I was unable to
post it until today. So you will notice that I predicted the Hawks to lose
Saturday's game against Cleveland, which I am happy to report they did not.
* - not really
When we last looked, the Hawks were starting yet another brutal stretch of 11
games (if you are just joining us, I am dividing the season into 8 ten-game
segments, but there are 82 games, which ended up meaning that I arbitrarily
decided to do 11-game blocks right off the bat - it's 10 from here on out),
during which they played 7 on the road and only 4 at home. How'd they do?
Looking Back: Can The Hawks Mess With Texas?
Home games: Charlotte, Milwaukee, Memphis, New York
Road games: Cleveland, Toronto, Washington, Dallas, Houston, San Antonio,
Miami
What happened: Unfortunately the Hawks couldn't quite mess with Texas,
though they came closer than they have in a while. The team lost all three games in the Texas
Triangle, but they were all close, showing if nothing else that Atlanta has
closed the gap considerably with those teams. Maybe one more year? The Hawks did
get two road wins, at Washington and Miami, and were perfect at home with wins
in all four contests. Overall, I predicted the team would go 7-4, but they
instead went 6-5.
Injury report: Josh Smith came back and was rusty for a few games, but
appears to be rounding back into shape. Al Horford continues to be bothered by
an injured ankle, which caused him to sit out the loss in Dallas. Everyone else
is mostly healthy.
In Summary: Overall, you have to be pretty happy with the way things
turned out. The trip through Texas was frustrating, but the Hawks still managed
to go 6-5 in a stretch that saw only 4 of 11 games in home territory. In
particular, the fact that the Hawks are playing so well at home is particularly
promising.
Looking Ahead: The Home Stand
Home games: Cleveland, Charlotte, Boston, Golden State, Detroit,
Oklahoma City, Chicago, Denver
Road games: Indiana, New Jersey
Expectations going in: After playing 14 of the first 22 on the road, the Hawks
come home for a nearly unheard of 8 straight home games. It's a mixture of good
teams and bad teams, and my feeling is that if the Hawks can continue taking
care of business at home the way they have, this could be a terrific stretch for
us. Charlotte, Golden State, and Oklahoma City are already playing for lottery
positioning, while Detroit and Chicago continue to struggle. Really only
Cleveland, Boston, and Denver are playing well right now. As far as road games,
the Hawks have already lost at Indiana and New Jersey. The Nets have continued
to play well since then, the Pacers have not.
Predicted Record: I won't go crazy and predict 8-0 or anything on the
homestand, but I'll say that we get wins
over Charlotte, Boston (that's right KG, we're coming for you!), Golden State,
Detroit, Oklahoma City, and Chicago, while losing to Cleveland (currently
destroying everyone in their path) and Denver. As for the two road games, I
think we'll get a win in Indiana, but continue to be flummoxed by Devin Harris
and the Nets and fall in New Jersey. I see 7-3. NOTE: As predicted,
this would mean we'd win six straight games during the home stand, which feels
like a bit much to me (at least for a prediction). So while I think we will go
7-3, I'd say it's quite possible my ordering could be messed up.
If the Hawks hit that 7-3 mark, that would put them at 20-12 through 32
games, and would put the team in terrific position in the race for the fourth
seed in the Eastern Conference.