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Ten Games At A Time - The Homestand
Posted by: Micah Hart on December 15, 2008 at 12:09AM AFT
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Time for another award-winning installment* of Ten Games At A Time, in which I make predictions on how the Hawks will perform in the next ten games while taking a look back to see how I did on the previous ten-game forecast.

Note: This was written on the plane home Friday night, but I was unable to post it until today. So you will notice that I predicted the Hawks to lose Saturday's game against Cleveland, which I am happy to report they did not.

* - not really

When we last looked, the Hawks were starting yet another brutal stretch of 11 games (if you are just joining us, I am dividing the season into 8 ten-game segments, but there are 82 games, which ended up meaning that I arbitrarily decided to do 11-game blocks right off the bat - it's 10 from here on out), during which they played 7 on the road and only 4 at home. How'd they do?

Looking Back: Can The Hawks Mess With Texas?
Home games:
Charlotte, Milwaukee, Memphis, New York
Road games: Cleveland, Toronto, Washington, Dallas, Houston, San Antonio, Miami

What happened: Unfortunately the Hawks couldn't quite mess with Texas, though they came closer than they have in a while. The team lost all three games in the Texas Triangle, but they were all close, showing if nothing else that Atlanta has closed the gap considerably with those teams. Maybe one more year? The Hawks did get two road wins, at Washington and Miami, and were perfect at home with wins in all four contests. Overall, I predicted the team would go 7-4, but they instead went 6-5.

Injury report: Josh Smith came back and was rusty for a few games, but appears to be rounding back into shape. Al Horford continues to be bothered by an injured ankle, which caused him to sit out the loss in Dallas. Everyone else is mostly healthy.

In Summary: Overall, you have to be pretty happy with the way things turned out. The trip through Texas was frustrating, but the Hawks still managed to go 6-5 in a stretch that saw only 4 of 11 games in home territory. In particular, the fact that the Hawks are playing so well at home is particularly promising.

Looking Ahead: The Home Stand
Home games:
Cleveland, Charlotte, Boston, Golden State, Detroit, Oklahoma City, Chicago, Denver
Road games: Indiana, New Jersey

Expectations going in: After playing 14 of the first 22 on the road, the Hawks come home for a nearly unheard of 8 straight home games. It's a mixture of good teams and bad teams, and my feeling is that if the Hawks can continue taking care of business at home the way they have, this could be a terrific stretch for us. Charlotte, Golden State, and Oklahoma City are already playing for lottery positioning, while Detroit and Chicago continue to struggle. Really only Cleveland, Boston, and Denver are playing well right now. As far as road games, the Hawks have already lost at Indiana and New Jersey. The Nets have continued to play well since then, the Pacers have not.

Predicted Record: I won't go crazy and predict 8-0 or anything on the homestand, but I'll say that we get wins over Charlotte, Boston (that's right KG, we're coming for you!), Golden State, Detroit, Oklahoma City, and Chicago, while losing to Cleveland (currently destroying everyone in their path) and Denver. As for the two road games, I think we'll get a win in Indiana, but continue to be flummoxed by Devin Harris and the Nets and fall in New Jersey. I see 7-3. NOTE: As predicted, this would mean we'd win six straight games during the home stand, which feels like a bit much to me (at least for a prediction). So while I think we will go 7-3, I'd say it's quite possible my ordering could be messed up.

If the Hawks hit that 7-3 mark, that would put them at 20-12 through 32 games, and would put the team in terrific position in the race for the fourth seed in the Eastern Conference.

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