I realize we are 7-4 right now, which if I do my math correctly, means we've played 11 games, but since the season is 82 games long, I'll just use the first 11 as one block, go 11 on the next, and then we'll stick to 10 the rest of the way out. In looking back at the first 11 games, I'm going to be as honest as I can about what I thought would happen since we didn't start this before the season, but then going forward we can just refer back to the previous 10-game predictions.

So, without further ado:

Season-Opening Stretch
Home games: 76ers, Raptors, Nets, Wizards
Road games: Magic, Hornets, Thunder, Bulls, Celtics, Nets, Pacers

Expectations Going In: I realize this is revisionist, but given the team's performance on the road historically, and given the caliber of teams we were playing, I wouldn't say I had incredibly high hopes for the team's record over the season's first stretch. In my mind, I thought we'd beat Philly, Toronto, OKC, sweep the Nets, and beat Washington. I figured Indy for a toss-up, and I figured we'd lose in Orlando (home opener and all), New Orleans (Paul had never lost to us), Chicago, and Boston. So, Predicted Record: I'd say about 6-5.

What Happened?: As we all know, this season started in a far different manner than we expected. The team proved their mettle early on with terrific defensive performances which led to unexpected road wins against the Magic, Hornets, and Bulls, pushing the team to 6-0 going into the grudge match with the Celtics in Boston. The team managed to win the last two of those games without the services of Josh Smith, and while they were able to maintain their level of performance without him for a couple games (and the loss to Boston as well), his absence really began to impact the team once Devin Harris and the Nets took the floor. Mike Bibby is a terrific guard for the Hawks, but he has trouble staying in front of the quicker point guards in the league, and without Smith behind him to deter players from driving into the paint, the Nets took advantage in winning both games. The same thing pretty much happened with TJ Ford and company in Indiana, though Al Horford's injury contributed to the defensive issues there as well. A four-game losing streak followed the 6-0 start, but the Hawks managed to stem the tide despite their health issues by fending off Washington this past Wednesday.
Actual Record: 7-4

Injury Watch: Speedy Claxton has been out the whole season so far with a hamstring injury, Josh Smith has missed the past 7+ games with an ankle injury, Horford sat out a game with an ankle injury as well, and Zaza Pachulia missed a game with a shoulder injury that continues to hamper him.

In Summary: There were ups and downs, and while I think some are inclined to feel a little pessimistic given the recent slide and near-loss to bottom-feeding Washington, I think overall we should be pretty happy. The early slate was brutal, and as Sund said on the radio this week, the Hawks didn't play a single game over the stretch that they didn't have to travel to first. Once the team got to 6-0 it was disappointing to give back some of that advantage, but still the team won more than they lost on the road (4-3), and I'll take that over any stretch of the season, period.

Looking Ahead: Can The Hawks Mess With Texas?
Home Games: Bobcats, Bucks, Grizzlies, Knicks
Road Games: Cavaliers, Raptors, Wizards, Mavericks, Rockets, Spurs, Heat

Expectations Going In: Look at those home games. None of those squads are better on paper than the Hawks, and as of now only the Knicks are looking like they'll compete for a playoff spot (and who saw that coming?). I don't think it's crazy to think we can win all four of those games. And the road games? Once again we see another road-heavy stretch, as 7 of the 11 are away from Philips. The Cavs game will be tough with the way they are playing right now, and the Raptors will be looking to pay us back for the beat-down we gave them at Philips on Nov 7. The Hawks can beat the Wizards and Heat on the road.

The real interesting part of this particular stretch to me is the stop through Texas, a trip that has been a Bataan Death March of sorts for the team the last several years. In fact, checking my handy-dandy media guide, I see that the Hawks have lost 4 straight in Dallas, 9 straight in Houston, and 10 straight in San Antonio. That's brutal. Well guess what folks - you heard it here first. I predict that at least two of those streaks are coming to an end this season. Yeah that's right, I said it. Watch out Dallas and San Antonio, the Hawks are coming for you! In all seriousness, if Josh Smith is back healthy by then (the Knicks game on Dec. 5 would be roughly a month), and the team can avoid any other injuries (certainly not a guarantee), I don't think its wrong to think the Hawks are a better team than the Mavs, and with Manu Ginobili and Tony Parker out for the Spurs, they are pretty much a shadow of their former selves.
Predicted Record: 7-4 - I say the Hawks replicate their first stretch and prepare for the longest home stretch of the season with a not-too-shabby 14-8 record.

The new stretch begins tonight with the Bobcats in town, a team that has given the Hawks fits over the years despite a wide gap in talent. I don't think this Charlotte squad has the makeup to give Atlanta fits the way the other teams that beat them have, as they don't hit a lot of threes (24th in the league in 3-pt %) and don't really have a penetration game that will lead them to easy baskets (DJ Augustin is lightning fast, but Raymond Felton gets most of the minutes at the point). With yet another back-to-back on the slate, I hope it's not too much to ask for the Hawks to get hot early and put the Bobcats to bed so they can save a little energy for what should be a very good game tomorrow night at Cleveland. Of course it never works out that way, and if they get caught looking ahead, the Bobcats have certainly shown in the past they are capable of making them pay for it. Still, the law of averages says Joe Johnson isn't going to replicate his poor shooting performance from Wednesday's game against the Wizards, and I see him having a huge night to lead the team to victory.

Join us at Philips for all the action, won't you?