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Hawks NBA Lottery Q & A With...Myself
Posted by:
Micah Hart on
May 10, 2007 at
11:39AM EST
 Sorry I haven't gotten to this yet, but now is as good a time as any. With the
NBA Lottery counting down (12 days left!), many people have been asking about
the Hawks draft scenarios.Here are some frequently asked questions, and
hopefully the necessary answers to explain all that you need to know as we
prepare for our lottery fate:
Q: What do we need to do to keep our pick from going to Phoenix?
A: We have to move into the top three. Phoenix gets our pick (the second of
two first-rounders we owe them from the deal for Joe Johnson) unless it is in
the top three. If lottery form holds, we would be in the fourth spot, which
would make the pick change hands.
Q: Ok, so what are the chances that the Hawks will move up?
A: Well, here is the chart:
I know that is small writing that will require some squinting,
but here are the relevant facts. The Hawks have a 11.9% chance of drawing the
#1 pick, a 12.59% chance of netting #2, and a 13.29% chance of
landing at #3. Adding those totals together, and it gives Atlanta a
37.78% chance of moving up in the draft.
Not amazing odds, but certainly nothing impossible.
Q: What about Indy's pick. Do we definitely get that?
A: Not definitely, but pretty likely. The first-rounder we obtained for Al
Harrington is top-ten protected. Since they are currently slotted at #11, the
only way the Pacers keep the pick is if they move into the top three as well.
Squinting at the chart (you can see the
full spreadsheet here), you can see the Pacers have a 0.80% chance of
moving to #1, 0.95 of #2, and 1.15% of #3, for a total of a
2.9% chance of moving up. It's not inconceivable, but certainly very, very
unlikely.
Q: So there is no way Indy keeps their pick if it's not in the top three?
A: That is correct. The lottery is used to determine only the top
three selections, and then everything goes by order of record (and tie-breaks)
after that. So it's not like Indiana can move up to, say, seventh. Outside of
ending up in the top three, the highest Indy's pick will be is #11. It could
move down as far as #14, but that would require all three teams behind the
Pacers in the lottery order to all move up. If that happens, I will streak
through Philips Arena.
Q: People are saying we could end up with no picks in this draft. Is that
true?
A: Is it, but the chances of it happening are miniscule. There are
four potential draft scenarios for the Hawks this season:
1) Lose our pick to Phoenix, get Indiana's
2) Keep our pick, get Indiana's
3) Lose our pick to Phoenix, Indiana keeps theirs
4) Keep our pick, lose Indiana's
Scenario #1 is the most likely to happen, as there is a 62.29% chance our
pick goes to Phoenix and a 97.1% chance we get Indiana's, which would leave us
with one first-round pick in the 11-14 range.
Q: I believe in karma. What can you tell me about this Hawks situation
that will make me feel confident about our chances of moving into the top-three?
A: Well, here are a couple reasons that I am optimistic. Since the
lottery went to it's current format in 1994, the Hawks have only moved up one
time, in 2001, when they moved from #5 to #3. That year was the only time
Dominique Wilkins has ever represented the franchise at the drawing. Guess who
is going to Secaucus this year? The Human Highlight Film.
The other reason is this: since 1994, the team with the fourth-best chance to
win the lottery has never ended up in the top spot. The four spot is due son. It
is four's time to shine. Fo, fo, fo.
Any questions? Leave them in the comments, and I will try to answer them.
(37) Comments
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Posted by: bill on May 10, 2007 8:23PM EST
If the Hawks do get the number one pick. Is it a no brainer they go with greg oden or could they pick kevin durant
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Posted by: Scott on May 11, 2007 10:41AM EST
Assuming we receive Indiana's pick at #11, will Mike Conley Jr. be around for the Hawks to draft?
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Posted by: Micah Hart on May 11, 2007 11:40AM EST
If we get #1, I think it's safe to say the Hawks will most likely take Greg Oden. Durant is an incredible talent, but Oden provides something the team needs in the worst way - a defensive intimidator in the paint.
As far as at #11, my personal opinion is that Conley will most likely be gone by then, but we'll have a better idea after the lottery order is set and we see what the point guard needs are of the teams in front of us.
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Posted by: wes on May 11, 2007 4:21PM EST
The Hawks dont have a second round pick do you think they will do anything to get a second round pick.
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Posted by: Magan Ngoto on May 12, 2007 8:16PM EST
As a Hawks fan, you have to love the idea of Greg Oden being in Atlanta. Throughout the season, the Hawks were beaten up in the paint. The Hawks need to do whatever is reasonable to get Greg Oden.
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Posted by: phoenix suns fan on May 13, 2007 8:38AM EST
how will the phoenix suns get the 4th pick??
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Posted by: Andy From Rhode Island on May 13, 2007 2:41PM EST
In the slim chance ATL goes #1- Oden undoubtedly. Durant has raw limitless potential, but needs to work on his physical frame. Oden is NBA-ready.
Conley SHOULD be available at 11, but another choice in my opinion is Roy Hibbert who should also be available. At 7'2 and still developing, he has the potential to be the most intimidating inside presence the Hawks have had since 'Kembe.
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Posted by: Bugger on May 14, 2007 2:20PM EST
It doesn't matter who we get, or what happens in the draft, so long as we have Mike Woodson as Head Coach. As long as Woody is coaching the Hawks, the team will continue to play for the lottery, rather than the playoffs.
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Posted by: wes on May 14, 2007 4:38PM EST
if the Hawks get the third overall pick who do who think they will pick
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Posted by: TERRY on May 14, 2007 4:51PM EST
are we even thinking about getting a new coach and gm for this franchise. We have a coach who has seemed clueless to what to do to win or who to play at diferent times in the game. we have a good three point shooter who sits on the bench and could develop into the point gaurd we need if he played more. then we have a gm who has no idea who to draft each year at what point is he going to realize that you cant keep getting on the end of their carrer point guards to keep up with all the fowards he keeps on drafting each year a point guard we could have got has went on to be either rookie of the year or guide their teams to the playoffs and better records then the year before. when will this end let woody and billy go and start over there first a clueless coach and a gm that doesnt seem to care who he drafts even if its at a position we dont need i wonder has woody ever said to him we need a point guard not another forward..........
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Posted by: Fan Mom on May 14, 2007 7:59PM EST
KEEP WOODY !!!
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Posted by: Micah Hart on May 15, 2007 10:33AM EST
Wes,
There are several players I would think are in the mix at three, so it's hard to say what we'll do. The names most frequently tossed out in the media there are Al Horford, Joakim Noah, Roy Hibbert, Mike Conley Jr, and Brandan Wright.
If we get #3, I think a lot of options will come into play.
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Posted by: TERRY on May 17, 2007 8:37AM EST
LET WOODY AND BILLY KNIGHT GO BEFORE THE DRAFT
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Posted by: Zolalala on May 17, 2007 10:11AM EST
To BUGGER:
I couldn't have said it better. Woodson is so confused with this team...he cannot push this team enough to win. The is a decent nucleus in the Hawks...It's just that Woodson can't find it. (Thanx to Billy Knight, who I'll get to later.) I could not believe that they would keep him longer...As long as woodson is "coach" the Hawks will be destined to play for the LOTTERY and NOT the PLAYOFFS. The Hawks were at least good enough to TRY to CONTEND for 8th seed near the end of the season, but no dice. (Thanks Woody. I wish I had four hands to give you 4 thumbs down.)
To TERRY: You're ABSOLUTELY RIGHT. Billy Knight for some reason loves to draft forwards...and loves to draft players we DON'T NEED. I still cringe at the fact that he made the "well it sounds good now" decision to trade 2001 draft pick Pau Gasol for Abdur-Rahim; 2003: WE HAD RASHEED WALLACE. WHAT?!!! And he trades him to DETROIT of all teams...and what happens in 04'? They win the championship. He gets rid of a decent point gurad in Jason Terry for who? Antoine WALKER?!! (Oh and for non-hawks fans, ABDUR-RAHIM and WALKER are no longer with the Hawks). There a few more trades and signing "gone wrong" scenarios but I'm not in the mood. Long story short: WE MUST GET RID OF MIKE WOODSON AND WE MUST GET RID OF A FAILURE OF A GM CALLED BILLY KNIGHT.
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Posted by: Zolalala on May 17, 2007 10:34AM EST
And of course, we will never forgive or forget Knight, for not GETTING A MUCH NEEDED POINT GUARD....WE MISSED PAUL, DERON WILLIAMS, AND EVEN RAYMOND FELTON?!! WHAT?!!!! (Sigh) Well, what can you do? North Carolina won the championship that year so that means go and draft a RESERVE PLAYER on the team?!! (Marvin Williams). WHAT? Uh, if he wanted a Tar Heel champ that bad there was SEAN MAY OR FELTON... Knight's draft choices are the equivalent of bricking a shot...no, shooting an AIR BALL. Can anyone tell me why he loves to draft forwards so much? I'd understand idf we NEEDED some forwards...BUT WE DON'T!!! You know the scary part about all of this....HE MIGHT DO IT AGAIN THIS YEAR!!!! NOOOOO!!! SOMEONE STOP HIM!!!! PLEASE!!!!!
(Sigh)
SOMEONE PLEASE HELP the Hawks...Executive-wise...once that gets fixed then we can focus on getting a great pick and pulling in some good players to steer this team into a post-season where the Hawks aren't sitting on a couch in May.
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Posted by: Zolalala on May 17, 2007 10:39AM EST
One more thing:
Does anyone recall the useless 2005 "trade" of Walker back to Boston for Gary Payton? Does anyone recall the fact that Payton didn't play a single game for the Hawks?!! IN FACT after he was waived by ATL, he RE-SIGNED WITH BOSTON?!!! (So they had Walker and Payton you ask?....) YES. How did Knight get fooled like that?...Oh yeah that's right...He's BILLY KNIGHT. (Sigh....)
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Posted by: King of Marietta on May 17, 2007 5:14PM EST
Theres no question if we get two lottery picks, we're getting GREG ODEN AND MIKE CONLEY JR.!
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Posted by: Atlplayer on May 18, 2007 2:07PM EST
I think mike woodson is a problem but Billy Knight ias more of a problem. I dont the the franchise should worry to much about finding a new coach because Mike is trying his best and i can see he has made a big change from the 05-06 season to the 06-07 season. Billy knight on the otherhand is a problem because of the fact that he likes to draft forwards and we dont need them. I feel that Mike woodson with a good pick will bring the hawks to the playoffs this season.
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Posted by: Tarhellbballer on May 19, 2007 3:17PM EST
Get rid of woody and billy night i love mike and all but he just isnt a coach
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Posted by: I.Favors on May 19, 2007 5:02PM EST
In the event that Conley Jr. isn't available, the Hawks should get Spencer Hawes. Also I think the Hawks should sign Maurice Williams from the Milwakuee Bucks to play the point for the Hawks. Maurice and Joe would be a good backcourt. The Hawks have too many backup guards and I think Speedy and T-Lue should stay as the backups and trade Anthony Johnson and Royal Ivey.
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Posted by: the captain on May 19, 2007 7:01PM EST
ready fo another messed up draft? knight needs to go
Is Jon Konkac still available?
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Posted by: I.Favors on May 20, 2007 2:10PM EST
I hear that Billy Knight is trying to get a point guard from overseas name Theodoros Papaloukas. Why can't he sign an free agent thats here in the US. I don't trust Billy Knight when it comes to signing and drafting.
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Posted by: Liang on May 20, 2007 8:00PM EST
What needs to happen is for Atlanta to take both Oden AND Hibbert in case they get both picks. I really like this idea in that someone is GOING to want to trade for one of them. And Corey Brewer must really be considered if he's available.
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Posted by: Magic Fred on May 20, 2007 9:35PM EST
All of you clowns who say fire Woodson just dont realize that it takes time PLUS PLAYERS to have a team! It doesnt happen overnight in one two or three seasons. Mike is dealt with what Billy gets him which has been some mishaps. So much of the NBA is mental concentration and will that most of you just dont realize that. I wanted Deron Williams in the worst way but Billy didnt pull the trigger and he passed on the rookie of the year this past year in Brandon Roy. I would like Coach Woodson to have a real center and point guard before they make a decision on getting rid of him. It wouldnt hurt to have the 1st pick in the draft this year also and then take Jarvaris Crittendon as the point guard IF we have those 2 picks. Have been a Hawks fan since 1968 so I've watched some ball. Not happy with Billy Knight at all but what can you do.
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Posted by: I.Favors on May 21, 2007 11:29AM EST
I hear that the European guard that Billy Knight is trying to bring over is like 33 years old. We need young legs not some European stiff. Knight really wants to run the team into the ground and if he does get that Euro guard its all over. I feel Woodson should have a chance this season, but I think we should boycott for Billy Knight to resign as GM.
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Posted by: jerry on May 21, 2007 5:33PM EST
i think the hawks should be happy having joe johnson
and sending your 4th pick to phoenix so we can have a big guy and really become a condender especially after we got ripped off in that robert horry deal and lost our #2 player and our #7 player in the same game.
im rooting for utah all the way
if not them than cleveland
go suns!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
just imagine:
G NASH
G BELL
C HIBBERT
PF STOUDAMIRE
SM MARRION
GO SUNS
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Posted by: King of Marietta on May 21, 2007 9:10PM EST
Hopefully if we get two picks, everybody who live in da A going down to Phillips to swing those towels.
We'll be like the 20008 version of Golden State.
Wearing Red t- shirts that say" we belive!
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Posted by: WV Ninja on May 21, 2007 9:43PM EST
Let me comment on the whole "karma" idea that the Hawks are due for some good fortune. I think we lost any right to karma the day we traded Dominique for Danny Freakin' Manning (Still the saddest day in my fan career and I'm also a Cubs fan so I've had a few). If that wasn't enough, trading away Steve Smith for J.R., I mean Isaiah, Rider had to be the worst swap of character ever.
Still, I'll keep my fingers crossed.
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Posted by: Classic on May 22, 2007 10:53AM EST
The Hawks are fine. And for any idiot who thinks that Coach Woody is not a good coach...go talk to Bob Knight or Larry Brown...We have a solid nucleus and Billy Knight is building this team from the ground up...The moves he has made in the past was to purge salaries and build a contender...Speedy would of been a formidable point but he was injured...We would have been right there last year for a playoff berth without all the injuries...that is a amazing, us being the youngest team in the league(23 yoa)...Stop belly aching Hawks fans...Billy Knight is ten times the GM that wack one we use to have, what's his name? Oh yeah I forgot.. Don't want to remember...He had us in the playoffs every year but that was it...Billy Knight is building a championship contender...To win championships you need superstars...We have one in Joe Johnson and Josh Smith is not to far behind...The upside on Marvin Williams and both Joshes are through the roof, not to mention Zaza is a force at a post spot...Were YOUNG, it takes time to click and understand what it takes to win...I truley believe this team will be in the playoffs next year even if we don't get the top 3 pick...We have money to get any free agent we want and now they will come here because they see the talent...Yes Billy knight as missed in the draft...but the talent he obtained was still solid enough to warrant a winner and eventually a contender...This is our year...We will make the playoffs...if not, all you belly aching fans will get your wish, and the best two men to walk in the Atlanta Hawks organization will be gone...Classic77
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Posted by: The truth on May 22, 2007 5:15PM EST
I'm tired of the lottery and NBA draft being the only time all year that the Hawks matter. It absolutely floors me that Billy Knight still has a job. He is the only person I have ever seen make picks that weren't for need or the best player available (Shelden Williams over RAndy Foye and Brandon Roy, Marvin Williams over Chris Paul and Deron Williams, Childress over Deng and Iguodala). Now it is easy to criticize with 20/20 hindsight except for me and everyone else in the world that those picks were terrible AT THE TIME. He has some complex where he needs to defy all the experts to take guys too early and guys we don't need. Knight and Matt Millen have to be the luckiest GMs on the face of the earth to still be employed, or there is some other reason they haven't been fired we don't know about...
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Posted by: I.Favors on May 22, 2007 8:55PM EST
We got number 3#
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Posted by: I.Favors on May 22, 2007 8:59PM EST
We got the #3 and #11 picks
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Posted by: wes on May 22, 2007 9:13PM EST
Yes!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! we got #3 and #11
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Posted by: Johnathan Marshall on May 22, 2007 9:16PM EST
I am just waiting for the moment when the imbecile Billy King goes on tv and tries to justify picking another overrated PF (Noah) instead of the point guard he needs (COnley).
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Posted by: J.H. on May 22, 2007 9:32PM EST
Hawks need to draft big. Im not trusting another 6 foot 9 swing man again. We cant have Josh smith, Marvin Williams, and Josh Childress who are all basically the same size. We need to draft Hibbert. 7 ft 2. Start big, illtake my chances on his shaky footwork, we just need him to block shots...not score. Then at 11 take Conley, who should be there. Hey Billy....DONT BLOW IT AGAIN!! NO MORE 6'9's no more 6'8's...and definitely not NOAH!
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Posted by: Used to be a Hawks Fan on June 20, 2007 4:37PM EST
Atlanta fans, prepare to have your hearts broken again, courtesy of Mr. Bozo Knight.
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Posted by: Mario Leathers on June 24, 2007 11:54AM EST
I really hope that the Hawks would use the third pick and get Mike Conley Jr.He is the perfect fit around a team that already has nice pieces to connect and he would blend perfect with Josh,Joe,Marvin and the rest of the guys.His court vision and ability to shoot the ball well along with his defensive presence reminds me of a younger Chris Paul.We need someone to push the ball up the floor and attack the basket with his atheltic ability.I've been a Hawks fan since 91 when they drafted my favorite player with the 9th pick-Stacey Augmon.I'm very excited about our team and I do believe that we will be positioned for the playoffs real soon.Select Mike Conley Jr with the 3rd pick and pick up a big man with the 11th and prepare yourselves for a whole lot of excitement this upcoming season.
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