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Hawks BasketBlog
Hawks NBA Lottery Q & A With...Myself
Posted by:
Micah Hart on
May 10, 2007 at
8:09PM AFT
Sorry I haven't gotten to this yet, but now is as good a time as any. With the
NBA Lottery counting down (12 days left!), many people have been asking about
the Hawks draft scenarios.Here are some frequently asked questions, and hopefully the necessary answers to explain all that you need to know as we prepare for our lottery fate: Q: What do we need to do to keep our pick from going to Phoenix? A: We have to move into the top three. Phoenix gets our pick (the second of two first-rounders we owe them from the deal for Joe Johnson) unless it is in the top three. If lottery form holds, we would be in the fourth spot, which would make the pick change hands. Q: Ok, so what are the chances that the Hawks will move up? A: Well, here is the chart: I know that is small writing that will require some squinting, but here are the relevant facts. The Hawks have a 11.9% chance of drawing the #1 pick, a 12.59% chance of netting #2, and a 13.29% chance of landing at #3. Adding those totals together, and it gives Atlanta a 37.78% chance of moving up in the draft. Not amazing odds, but certainly nothing impossible. Q: What about Indy's pick. Do we definitely get that? A: Not definitely, but pretty likely. The first-rounder we obtained for Al Harrington is top-ten protected. Since they are currently slotted at #11, the only way the Pacers keep the pick is if they move into the top three as well. Squinting at the chart (you can see the full spreadsheet here), you can see the Pacers have a 0.80% chance of moving to #1, 0.95 of #2, and 1.15% of #3, for a total of a 2.9% chance of moving up. It's not inconceivable, but certainly very, very unlikely. Q: So there is no way Indy keeps their pick if it's not in the top three? A: That is correct. The lottery is used to determine only the top three selections, and then everything goes by order of record (and tie-breaks) after that. So it's not like Indiana can move up to, say, seventh. Outside of ending up in the top three, the highest Indy's pick will be is #11. It could move down as far as #14, but that would require all three teams behind the Pacers in the lottery order to all move up. If that happens, I will streak through Philips Arena. Q: People are saying we could end up with no picks in this draft. Is that true? A: Is it, but the chances of it happening are miniscule. There are four potential draft scenarios for the Hawks this season: 1) Lose our pick to Phoenix, get Indiana's Scenario #1 is the most likely to happen, as there is a 62.29% chance our pick goes to Phoenix and a 97.1% chance we get Indiana's, which would leave us with one first-round pick in the 11-14 range. Q: I believe in karma. What can you tell me about this Hawks situation that will make me feel confident about our chances of moving into the top-three? A: Well, here are a couple reasons that I am optimistic. Since the lottery went to it's current format in 1994, the Hawks have only moved up one time, in 2001, when they moved from #5 to #3. That year was the only time Dominique Wilkins has ever represented the franchise at the drawing. Guess who is going to Secaucus this year? The Human Highlight Film. The other reason is this: since 1994, the team with the fourth-best chance to win the lottery has never ended up in the top spot. The four spot is due son. It is four's time to shine. Fo, fo, fo. Any questions? Leave them in the comments, and I will try to answer them.
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