I know some of you out there disagree, and it's a free country so you are certainly welcome to your opinion, but just so you know, there are many out there who are happy with how the Hawks did tonight.

The AJC's Mark Bradley is one of them. Here is his article for tomorrow about the Hawks' work tonight. I for one couldn't agree with him more. We got two players who can play (and play right away) next year, and both are proven winners.

Hindsight is always 20/20, and maybe someday people will say the team should have done something different. But looking forward, we did as good as we could have in 2007, and a lot of credit for that should go to Billy Knight, who got us in position to do this with the Al Harrington deal.

That's about it for me from here. If we should happen to trade our way back into the second round tonight I will let you know, but it sounds like we are probably about done.

I will close with a story. I went to Texas (ummm, I may have mentioned that in these parts once or twice before), so I saw both of their games this season against Texas A&M and Acie Law. In the game at Austin that most people talk about when discussing Law's heroics, he hit a ridiculous three-pointer over Kevin Durant to send the game into overtime. If you watched the game, or if you watch this segment from when he was on the Jim Rome show (scroll to about 15 seconds in) you will see the camera close in on him celebrating with his teammates as he mouths the words, "That's what I do."

That's when I knew this guy was the right player for this team. That's the kind of player I'll take every single day, a guy who wants the ball at the end and has the confidence in himself to make things happen.

This is a good night, Hawks fans. We aren't to the mountaintop yet, but I promise you we are much closer to it tonight than we were yesterday.

Just over two weeks until Summer League - I can't wait!

The draft party, from what I've heard, was a lot of fun. I didn't get to see any of it because I am down here in the locker room area, but here are some pictures of the event courtesy of ace photographer Jon "Newbs" Newberry.

Al Horford. Coming to dominate a low post near you. I love - LOVE - this pick for us. Personally, I look at Horford and see a guy with the potential to be as good as Elton Brand - a guy with the potential to put up 20 and 10 on any given night.

The guy has a championship pedigree as we all know, and I just don't think that can be stressed enough as a positive in his favor as he joins a team that has been through an awful lot of losing in the last few years.

Horford is a physical load in the paint, and in the size-deprived East he should be able to thrive. and I'd bet on that happening sooner rather than later.

I know there are some fans who wanted the team to take a point guard at this spot, but this to me was the right pick. Of course time will tell, but I feel very good about the direction this night is going in...

There is so much speculation going on right now about tonight's festivities, and I for one am just chomping at the bit to get it started and find out what happens.

For the third straight year, I will be live-blogging tonight's events from just outside Hawks Draft Central, and I will try to keep you posted on any and all happenings as they occur.

There are a ton of rumors out there right now about what we are going to do, so tonight has the potential to be a wild, wild evening.

I will be posting throughout the day if anything concrete happens (with our team or the rest of the league), so check back often.

Fasten your seatbelts, this ride could get bumpy!

As we start getting closer and closer to the June 28th NBA Draft, I thought it would be a good idea to start taking a closer look at some of the players who might be plying their trade in Atlanta next season.

Though I am a huge college basketball fan, I didn't really see most of the guys projected to be available to us enough times to comment on them at length.

Fortunately, one of the beautiful things about this here Internet is there are many blogs out there that follow these guys all year long and can give insight into what kinds of players they are and what they are capable of becoming.

Today we will begin our series with Florida big man Al Horford.

Our guest expert today is Dan Shanoff, who you may know from his work at www.danshanoff.com and from his time writing for ESPN.com. Shanoff is a huge Gator supporter and will have previews of other UF players in the coming weeks. For now, here are his words on the Gators' big man:

Al Horford:
Draft Express profile

Stats: 6'10", 235 lbs. Averaged 13.2 ppg and 9.5 rpg as a Junior in 2006-07.

Strengths: Physically, the most NBA-ready player in the draft. Ferocious rebounder and finisher. Deft passer. Consistent jumper out to the elbow. Runs the court like a guard. And, picking his spots, he can lead the break with the dribble.

Weaknesses: Not much. Can always be a better outside shooter.

Why Hawks fans should want him: I think he could step in and immediately be one of the Top 3 power forwards in the East.

What might give Hawks fans pause: They just spent a Lottery pick on a power forward a year ago. Can he and Sheldon play together?

What current player he reminds you of: Carlos Boozer, Elton Brand

 

Ok, back to it. It seems to me there are two different camps of what to do if we keep both picks. Some want us to fill our point guard needs at #3 and worry about getting a big at #11 or through free agency. Others think a big is the way to go at #3, and worry about a guard later. Which brings me to...

WARNING!

Just remember that none of what I say here should be taken as evidence as to what the Hawks will actually do. I have no inside information. So, you know what to do. Let's hear what you think in the comments.
 

Hope everyone had a great Memorial Day. Judging by the comments section on the "Which Veterans To Target" post, it seems the Hawks were on your mind during the extended weekend. Can't blame you; they were on mine too.

Let's get right back into it today with what I consider to be the ultimate draft-strategy question.

WARNING!

Once again, I feel compelled to mention that none of what I say here should be taken as evidence as to what the Hawks will actually do. I have no inside information. Ok, now that that's out there, tell me what you think in the comments.


 

Man - Gotta give it up to you, Hawks fans. The comments section on the blog is filled with your thoughts and suggestions on what the team should do come June 28, and (what a surprise), almost every opinion is different.

It just goes to show you how many possibilities there are for what we can do. It's almost hard to keep track!

So, what I thought I'd do is try to segment out some of the different options and see what everyone thinks we should do in each case.

WARNING!

None of what I say here should be taken as evidence as to what the Hawks will actually do. Yes, I work for the franchise, but BK keeps everything close to the vest, and I promise, as much as I'd like to, I have no inside information. Ok, now that that's out there, let's get into it.

So, get to it Hawks fans - who is out there for us? Share your thoughts in the comments.

 

Alright, we've all had a chance to sleep on what happened last night and drink in what the future holds for our franchise. The Hawks beat the odds, ending up with two picks in the top eleven despite only a 38% chance of doing so.

For a franchise short on luck over the past several years, that was huge. Could it have been better? Sure. I won't say I wasn't slightly disappointed when they called our name at #3, but I will take it, no doubt.

It sounds like Dominique Wilkins certainly feels the same way, based on the interview he gave last night, which I reprint here:

Q: How do you feel about the way things went tonight and securing the third overall pick?
Wilkins: I’m happy because we got two picks in the first round. We were positioned if we get the fourth pick, we lose that pick, so to keep the pick and get the 11th spot here is great for us.

Q: Is there any position you are looking to fill with the third pick?
Wilkins: We are going to look at a lot of different variables. We got good choices at both picks and, believe me, we are going to make the best decision on what we need. We are definitely going to draft on what we need instead of the best available guy. This is great for our franchise because I think this will make us instantly a contender for the playoffs. This is big for us.

Q: How much of a relief was it to get in that top three?
Wilkins: I was sweating over there. I wasn’t banking on one, but I said just get me the three. We already got eleven, just get me the three and then we have two good choices in the first round.

Q: Are you superstitious at all? Did you bring anything for luck today?
Wilkins: A little bit. I have my tie. It’s the tie I wore in the Hall of Fame, so I said maybe it will help me a little bit tonight.

Nique wasn't the only one contributing to the Hawks positive karma for the lottery. Thanks to everyone who entered the "Share Your Luck" Sweepstakes for providing access to their good mojo. In particular, we'd like to thank Jeff Rackliff, who was chosen as the grand prize winner.

Jeff met his wife at a Hawks game 25 years ago (which just so happened to be Dominique's rookie season), so he considers the Hawks to always be lucky to him. I'll say - not only did he help us to the #3 pick, but he also wins for himself a trip for two to New York to see the Hawks make their two lottery selections amongst a bevy of other prizes.

Meanwhile, back to the issues at hand. There are a ton of possibilities available to the Hawks this offseason. Should we keep the picks and draft two players? Trade one and/or both of them for established veterans? Some combination of the two? The scenarios are as limitless as your imagination.

One thing I will say, from reading the comments, is there seems to be somewhat of a groundswell for taking Yi Jianlian, the 7-footer from China. I will see what more information I can dig up on him and get back to you. As is, I plan on getting some in-depth profiles from those in the know about several of the players who are potential selections for the club.

Lastly, I would just like to make two points - maybe it's hindsight (though I maintain it was the right move when it happened), but can anyone really dispute the trade for Joe Johnson now? Yes we lose our pick next year, but if we are still in the high lottery, that is a whole other problem. I'd say the price we paid was worth it and then some.

As well, I'd like to give BK some credit for the Al Harrington trade and the way that worked out. Indiana literally got as far up in the draft as was possible without retaining their pick, and for a franchise as successful as they are, I don't know that we could have asked for much more.

BK just concluded his press conference with the Atlanta media, and I will post audio from that in just a little bit.

Keep your suggestions coming!

Alright, it's getting late, and I will post much more on this tomorrow, but let's just take a quick look at what just transpired.

- For only the second time in Hawks lottery history, the team moved up. In 2001 they went from 5 to 3, and tonight we went from 4 to 3. Because of this, we get to keep our pick this year (and lose our first-rounder next year automatically to Phoenix).

- Indiana did not move up, so we get to keep their pick from the Al Harrington trade, which will be the #11 selection.

- For those with trouble counting, that means we have two picks in the top 11 of a draft considered to be one of the deepest in league history.

Crisis averted. Though we did lose out on the Oden/Durant sweepstakes (congrats to the Pacific Northwest, where the lottery winners reside tonight), we end up in a position to make some big moves on draft night.

I spoke to Billy Knight right after the lottery was announced, and you could hear the excitement in his voice.

"Having two picks in this draft is definitely fortunate," said the notoriously understated GM. "I was very nervous when they were announcing the order, but it worked out in our favor. One part of the job is over, and now it's time to start focusing on the next part.

"There are a lot of players available that we think can come in and help us right away, and we are going to get to work figuring out who will fit in with us the best."

I only spoke to BK for a couple minutes, but I came away with the impression that he is not going to be looking for long-term projects. He wants guys who, like he said, can come into training camp and hopefully make a difference on the court right away and not several years down the line.

Big props, by the way, to Hawks VP of Basketball and Hall of Famer Dominique Wilkins, who once again took the podium on a night when the franchise needed a dose of good fortune. He is now two for two repping the franchise in the lottery.

We know Portland will take Greg Oden at #1. We know Seattle will take Kevin Durant at #2. The intrigue for the 2007 draft begins with us at #3.

What direction should the Hawks go in? Let us know what you think in the comments, and we will talk about it much, much, MUCH more in the next five weeks.

But I think I speak for all Hawks fans out there when I say that tonight, the prevailing thought is, "Wheeeeeeeeew!"

Well, the big day is here. Tonight at 8:30 on ESPN the NBA Draft Lottery will be held, and Hawks fans will find out if their prayers have been answered.

Just to recap - we've got 119 combinations out of 1000. That gives us an 11.9% chance of winning the overall lottery. We've got a 12.59% chance of nabbing the two spot, and 13.29% of ending up at the three.

Indiana has eight combinations, giving them 0.80% of the top spot, 0.95% of the two, and 1.15% of the three. Not a great shot for them to move up, but it could happen.

For anyone who hasn't seen it on the home page, I participated in a lottery preview with most of the teams in the draw tonight. Check it out, it's interesting stuff that breaks down what each of the teams need and what their lottery history has been.

Feelin lucky? We'll see what happens at 8:30. Feel free to leave your thoughts on what's going to go down in the comments.

I have a confession to make. I suck at math. Actually, I am good at basic math (your addition, subtraction, multiplication and what have you), but once you get up to Algebra, it typically goes in one ear and out the other. I was once good at the subject, but since it has been nearly 15 years since I had to solve anything for x, let's just say I am entirely rusty.

I bring this up because with the NBA Draft Lottery taking place a week from today, plenty of people are asking questions about the likelihood of various scenarios to play out for the Hawks. We covered a lot of the territory last week, breaking down the percentages for the Hawks keeping their own pick or obtaining Indiana's.

However, there is more territory to explore. Specifically, what are the chances of each of the four scenarios happening?

To refresh those who are too lazy to click the link in the above paragraph, there are four potential outcomes for the Hawks in the Lottery:

1) Keep Hawks pick, add Indy's pick
2) Keep Hawks pick, lose Indy's pick
3) Lose Hawks pick, add Indy's pick
4) Lose Hawks pick, lose Indy's pick

Since I am bad at math (and statistics, and economics, and balancing a checkbook, etc), I farmed out the heavy lifting on this to Dr. Steve Walton, a business professor at the esteemed Goizueta Business School at Emory. Actually, he is the Interim Associate Dean and Program Director of the Full-Time MBA Programs and Assistant Professor in the Practice of Decision and Information Analysis (that is a LOT to fit on a business card). So he's got that going for him, which is nice.

Over a cup of coffee, Walton was able to produce a power point document that sums up the probabilities of each scenario for the Hawks. Definitely check out his findings, but I will summarize the necessary information I gleaned from it.

Basically, the chances of Indiana moving up to nab a top-three pick are very slim, making the odds of each outcome very similar to the lottery odds listed for each team. So, if the Hawks have a roughly 39% chance of moving into the top three, they similarly have around a 38% chance of keeping their pick and getting the Pacers'. Here is the full chart:

So, it's pretty clear. The most likely scenario is that we lose our pick to Phoenix and gain Indiana's, but there is still a pretty solid chance that we could end up with two picks in the lottery.

I don't know about you, but I cannot wait for Tuesday to get here.

Here are some frequently asked questions, and hopefully the necessary answers to explain all that you need to know as we prepare for our lottery fate:

Q: What do we need to do to keep our pick from going to Phoenix?

A: We have to move into the top three. Phoenix gets our pick (the second of two first-rounders we owe them from the deal for Joe Johnson) unless it is in the top three. If lottery form holds, we would be in the fourth spot, which would make the pick change hands.

Q: Ok, so what are the chances that the Hawks will move up?

A: Well, here is the chart:

I know that is small writing that will require some squinting, but here are the relevant facts. The Hawks have a 11.9% chance of drawing the #1 pick, a 12.59% chance of netting #2, and a 13.29% chance of landing at #3. Adding those totals together, and it gives Atlanta a 37.78% chance of moving up in the draft.

Not amazing odds, but certainly nothing impossible.

Q: What about Indy's pick. Do we definitely get that?

A: Not definitely, but pretty likely. The first-rounder we obtained for Al Harrington is top-ten protected. Since they are currently slotted at #11, the only way the Pacers keep the pick is if they move into the top three as well. Squinting at the chart (you can see the full spreadsheet here), you can see the Pacers have a 0.80% chance of moving to #1, 0.95 of #2, and 1.15% of #3, for a total of a 2.9% chance of moving up. It's not inconceivable, but certainly very, very unlikely.

Q: So there is no way Indy keeps their pick if it's not in the top three?

A: That is correct. The lottery is used to determine only the top three selections, and then everything goes by order of record (and tie-breaks) after that. So it's not like Indiana can move up to, say, seventh. Outside of ending up in the top three, the highest Indy's pick will be is #11. It could move down as far as #14, but that would require all three teams behind the Pacers in the lottery order to all move up. If that happens, I will streak through Philips Arena.

Q: People are saying we could end up with no picks in this draft. Is that true?

A: Is it, but the chances of it happening are miniscule. There are four potential draft scenarios for the Hawks this season:

1) Lose our pick to Phoenix, get Indiana's
2) Keep our pick, get Indiana's
3) Lose our pick to Phoenix, Indiana keeps theirs
4) Keep our pick, lose Indiana's

Scenario #1 is the most likely to happen, as there is a 62.29% chance our pick goes to Phoenix and a 97.1% chance we get Indiana's, which would leave us with one first-round pick in the 11-14 range.

Q: I believe in karma. What can you tell me about this Hawks situation that will make me feel confident about our chances of moving into the top-three?

A: Well, here are a couple reasons that I am optimistic. Since the lottery went to it's current format in 1994, the Hawks have only moved up one time, in 2001, when they moved from #5 to #3. That year was the only time Dominique Wilkins has ever represented the franchise at the drawing. Guess who is going to Secaucus this year? The Human Highlight Film.

The other reason is this: since 1994, the team with the fourth-best chance to win the lottery has never ended up in the top spot. The four spot is due son. It is four's time to shine. Fo, fo, fo.

Any questions? Leave them in the comments, and I will try to answer them.

Today is an important day for the Hawks. Why, you ask? Because today the NBA will flip coins to break all the draft lottery ties between teams with the same record.

Thanks to the late-season swoon by the Pacers and a surge by the Sixers, Indy and Philly ended up tied for 11th with identical 35-47 records. Depending on how you look at things, there are arguments for rooting for either option.

If Philly wins the coin flip, it lessens the chance that Indiana could move into the top three, which would keep us from obtaining their pick (its top-ten protected). On the other hand, if the Pacers win, then the Hawks move up one more place in the order and draft 11th assuming form holds.

Personally, I'm rooting for Indy. I will take my chances at 11.

Which reminds me - with all the grief BK gets, can we declare the trade for Al Harrington a success now? If you were given the option to trade Al today for the 11th pick, would you do it? I would. Nothing against Al, who will be returning to the playoffs this season with the surprising Golden State Warriors, but his absence did not cost us a playoff berth. I stand by the deal.

In other news, maybe we didn't have the best season, but we can take some comfort in ruining other teams' seasons as well. Clipper Blog breaks down the losses that cost their team a playoff berth, and he points to our road win at Staples Center as one of the primary causes. Take that, Clips.

Anyway, if you are interested in seeing the tie-breaks broke, check your local listings for NBATV - it is supposed to air some time this afternoon.

In the meantime, have fun with ESPN's Draft Lottery machine. It's pretty addictive. I got the above scenario on my second try.