Ok, back to it. It seems to me there are two different camps of what to do if we keep both picks. Some want us to fill our point guard needs at #3 and worry about getting a big at #11 or through free agency. Others think a big is the way to go at #3, and worry about a guard later. Which brings me to...

WARNING!

Just remember that none of what I say here should be taken as evidence as to what the Hawks will actually do. I have no inside information. So, you know what to do. Let's hear what you think in the comments.
 

Hope everyone had a great Memorial Day. Judging by the comments section on the "Which Veterans To Target" post, it seems the Hawks were on your mind during the extended weekend. Can't blame you; they were on mine too.

Let's get right back into it today with what I consider to be the ultimate draft-strategy question.

WARNING!

Once again, I feel compelled to mention that none of what I say here should be taken as evidence as to what the Hawks will actually do. I have no inside information. Ok, now that that's out there, tell me what you think in the comments.


 

Man - Gotta give it up to you, Hawks fans. The comments section on the blog is filled with your thoughts and suggestions on what the team should do come June 28, and (what a surprise), almost every opinion is different.

It just goes to show you how many possibilities there are for what we can do. It's almost hard to keep track!

So, what I thought I'd do is try to segment out some of the different options and see what everyone thinks we should do in each case.

WARNING!

None of what I say here should be taken as evidence as to what the Hawks will actually do. Yes, I work for the franchise, but BK keeps everything close to the vest, and I promise, as much as I'd like to, I have no inside information. Ok, now that that's out there, let's get into it.

So, get to it Hawks fans - who is out there for us? Share your thoughts in the comments.

 

USA Basketball announced some roster changes for this summer's Olympic qualifying competitions.

The biggest news first - Joe Johnson is off the team for the time being due to injury. This is probably a good thing, as the Hawks' team captain suffered from injuries last season for the first time in his career and getting the summer off to get healthy is selfishly very good for us.

He is not the only one taking the summer off - Chris Paul, Gilbert Arenas, Brad Miller, Lamar Odom, Paul Pierce, and Dwyane Wade will also be inactive for the national team.

In their place, eight players were added: Carlos Boozer, Tyson Chandler, Kevin Durant, Jason Kidd, Mike Miller, Greg Oden, Tayshaun Prince, and Deron Williams.

What this means for Joe's long-term future on the team is unknown, but I imagine he will always be in the mix for a spot so long as he is healthy.

In the meantime, use the time well Joe and get some rest - we need you for 2007-08!

 

Alright, we've all had a chance to sleep on what happened last night and drink in what the future holds for our franchise. The Hawks beat the odds, ending up with two picks in the top eleven despite only a 38% chance of doing so.

For a franchise short on luck over the past several years, that was huge. Could it have been better? Sure. I won't say I wasn't slightly disappointed when they called our name at #3, but I will take it, no doubt.

It sounds like Dominique Wilkins certainly feels the same way, based on the interview he gave last night, which I reprint here:

Q: How do you feel about the way things went tonight and securing the third overall pick?
Wilkins: I’m happy because we got two picks in the first round. We were positioned if we get the fourth pick, we lose that pick, so to keep the pick and get the 11th spot here is great for us.

Q: Is there any position you are looking to fill with the third pick?
Wilkins: We are going to look at a lot of different variables. We got good choices at both picks and, believe me, we are going to make the best decision on what we need. We are definitely going to draft on what we need instead of the best available guy. This is great for our franchise because I think this will make us instantly a contender for the playoffs. This is big for us.

Q: How much of a relief was it to get in that top three?
Wilkins: I was sweating over there. I wasn’t banking on one, but I said just get me the three. We already got eleven, just get me the three and then we have two good choices in the first round.

Q: Are you superstitious at all? Did you bring anything for luck today?
Wilkins: A little bit. I have my tie. It’s the tie I wore in the Hall of Fame, so I said maybe it will help me a little bit tonight.

Nique wasn't the only one contributing to the Hawks positive karma for the lottery. Thanks to everyone who entered the "Share Your Luck" Sweepstakes for providing access to their good mojo. In particular, we'd like to thank Jeff Rackliff, who was chosen as the grand prize winner.

Jeff met his wife at a Hawks game 25 years ago (which just so happened to be Dominique's rookie season), so he considers the Hawks to always be lucky to him. I'll say - not only did he help us to the #3 pick, but he also wins for himself a trip for two to New York to see the Hawks make their two lottery selections amongst a bevy of other prizes.

Meanwhile, back to the issues at hand. There are a ton of possibilities available to the Hawks this offseason. Should we keep the picks and draft two players? Trade one and/or both of them for established veterans? Some combination of the two? The scenarios are as limitless as your imagination.

One thing I will say, from reading the comments, is there seems to be somewhat of a groundswell for taking Yi Jianlian, the 7-footer from China. I will see what more information I can dig up on him and get back to you. As is, I plan on getting some in-depth profiles from those in the know about several of the players who are potential selections for the club.

Lastly, I would just like to make two points - maybe it's hindsight (though I maintain it was the right move when it happened), but can anyone really dispute the trade for Joe Johnson now? Yes we lose our pick next year, but if we are still in the high lottery, that is a whole other problem. I'd say the price we paid was worth it and then some.

As well, I'd like to give BK some credit for the Al Harrington trade and the way that worked out. Indiana literally got as far up in the draft as was possible without retaining their pick, and for a franchise as successful as they are, I don't know that we could have asked for much more.

BK just concluded his press conference with the Atlanta media, and I will post audio from that in just a little bit.

Keep your suggestions coming!

Alright, it's getting late, and I will post much more on this tomorrow, but let's just take a quick look at what just transpired.

- For only the second time in Hawks lottery history, the team moved up. In 2001 they went from 5 to 3, and tonight we went from 4 to 3. Because of this, we get to keep our pick this year (and lose our first-rounder next year automatically to Phoenix).

- Indiana did not move up, so we get to keep their pick from the Al Harrington trade, which will be the #11 selection.

- For those with trouble counting, that means we have two picks in the top 11 of a draft considered to be one of the deepest in league history.

Crisis averted. Though we did lose out on the Oden/Durant sweepstakes (congrats to the Pacific Northwest, where the lottery winners reside tonight), we end up in a position to make some big moves on draft night.

I spoke to Billy Knight right after the lottery was announced, and you could hear the excitement in his voice.

"Having two picks in this draft is definitely fortunate," said the notoriously understated GM. "I was very nervous when they were announcing the order, but it worked out in our favor. One part of the job is over, and now it's time to start focusing on the next part.

"There are a lot of players available that we think can come in and help us right away, and we are going to get to work figuring out who will fit in with us the best."

I only spoke to BK for a couple minutes, but I came away with the impression that he is not going to be looking for long-term projects. He wants guys who, like he said, can come into training camp and hopefully make a difference on the court right away and not several years down the line.

Big props, by the way, to Hawks VP of Basketball and Hall of Famer Dominique Wilkins, who once again took the podium on a night when the franchise needed a dose of good fortune. He is now two for two repping the franchise in the lottery.

We know Portland will take Greg Oden at #1. We know Seattle will take Kevin Durant at #2. The intrigue for the 2007 draft begins with us at #3.

What direction should the Hawks go in? Let us know what you think in the comments, and we will talk about it much, much, MUCH more in the next five weeks.

But I think I speak for all Hawks fans out there when I say that tonight, the prevailing thought is, "Wheeeeeeeeew!"

Well, the big day is here. Tonight at 8:30 on ESPN the NBA Draft Lottery will be held, and Hawks fans will find out if their prayers have been answered.

Just to recap - we've got 119 combinations out of 1000. That gives us an 11.9% chance of winning the overall lottery. We've got a 12.59% chance of nabbing the two spot, and 13.29% of ending up at the three.

Indiana has eight combinations, giving them 0.80% of the top spot, 0.95% of the two, and 1.15% of the three. Not a great shot for them to move up, but it could happen.

For anyone who hasn't seen it on the home page, I participated in a lottery preview with most of the teams in the draw tonight. Check it out, it's interesting stuff that breaks down what each of the teams need and what their lottery history has been.

Feelin lucky? We'll see what happens at 8:30. Feel free to leave your thoughts on what's going to go down in the comments.

I have a confession to make. I suck at math. Actually, I am good at basic math (your addition, subtraction, multiplication and what have you), but once you get up to Algebra, it typically goes in one ear and out the other. I was once good at the subject, but since it has been nearly 15 years since I had to solve anything for x, let's just say I am entirely rusty.

I bring this up because with the NBA Draft Lottery taking place a week from today, plenty of people are asking questions about the likelihood of various scenarios to play out for the Hawks. We covered a lot of the territory last week, breaking down the percentages for the Hawks keeping their own pick or obtaining Indiana's.

However, there is more territory to explore. Specifically, what are the chances of each of the four scenarios happening?

To refresh those who are too lazy to click the link in the above paragraph, there are four potential outcomes for the Hawks in the Lottery:

1) Keep Hawks pick, add Indy's pick
2) Keep Hawks pick, lose Indy's pick
3) Lose Hawks pick, add Indy's pick
4) Lose Hawks pick, lose Indy's pick

Since I am bad at math (and statistics, and economics, and balancing a checkbook, etc), I farmed out the heavy lifting on this to Dr. Steve Walton, a business professor at the esteemed Goizueta Business School at Emory. Actually, he is the Interim Associate Dean and Program Director of the Full-Time MBA Programs and Assistant Professor in the Practice of Decision and Information Analysis (that is a LOT to fit on a business card). So he's got that going for him, which is nice.

Over a cup of coffee, Walton was able to produce a power point document that sums up the probabilities of each scenario for the Hawks. Definitely check out his findings, but I will summarize the necessary information I gleaned from it.

Basically, the chances of Indiana moving up to nab a top-three pick are very slim, making the odds of each outcome very similar to the lottery odds listed for each team. So, if the Hawks have a roughly 39% chance of moving into the top three, they similarly have around a 38% chance of keeping their pick and getting the Pacers'. Here is the full chart:

So, it's pretty clear. The most likely scenario is that we lose our pick to Phoenix and gain Indiana's, but there is still a pretty solid chance that we could end up with two picks in the lottery.

I don't know about you, but I cannot wait for Tuesday to get here.

Here are some frequently asked questions, and hopefully the necessary answers to explain all that you need to know as we prepare for our lottery fate:

Q: What do we need to do to keep our pick from going to Phoenix?

A: We have to move into the top three. Phoenix gets our pick (the second of two first-rounders we owe them from the deal for Joe Johnson) unless it is in the top three. If lottery form holds, we would be in the fourth spot, which would make the pick change hands.

Q: Ok, so what are the chances that the Hawks will move up?

A: Well, here is the chart:

I know that is small writing that will require some squinting, but here are the relevant facts. The Hawks have a 11.9% chance of drawing the #1 pick, a 12.59% chance of netting #2, and a 13.29% chance of landing at #3. Adding those totals together, and it gives Atlanta a 37.78% chance of moving up in the draft.

Not amazing odds, but certainly nothing impossible.

Q: What about Indy's pick. Do we definitely get that?

A: Not definitely, but pretty likely. The first-rounder we obtained for Al Harrington is top-ten protected. Since they are currently slotted at #11, the only way the Pacers keep the pick is if they move into the top three as well. Squinting at the chart (you can see the full spreadsheet here), you can see the Pacers have a 0.80% chance of moving to #1, 0.95 of #2, and 1.15% of #3, for a total of a 2.9% chance of moving up. It's not inconceivable, but certainly very, very unlikely.

Q: So there is no way Indy keeps their pick if it's not in the top three?

A: That is correct. The lottery is used to determine only the top three selections, and then everything goes by order of record (and tie-breaks) after that. So it's not like Indiana can move up to, say, seventh. Outside of ending up in the top three, the highest Indy's pick will be is #11. It could move down as far as #14, but that would require all three teams behind the Pacers in the lottery order to all move up. If that happens, I will streak through Philips Arena.

Q: People are saying we could end up with no picks in this draft. Is that true?

A: Is it, but the chances of it happening are miniscule. There are four potential draft scenarios for the Hawks this season:

1) Lose our pick to Phoenix, get Indiana's
2) Keep our pick, get Indiana's
3) Lose our pick to Phoenix, Indiana keeps theirs
4) Keep our pick, lose Indiana's

Scenario #1 is the most likely to happen, as there is a 62.29% chance our pick goes to Phoenix and a 97.1% chance we get Indiana's, which would leave us with one first-round pick in the 11-14 range.

Q: I believe in karma. What can you tell me about this Hawks situation that will make me feel confident about our chances of moving into the top-three?

A: Well, here are a couple reasons that I am optimistic. Since the lottery went to it's current format in 1994, the Hawks have only moved up one time, in 2001, when they moved from #5 to #3. That year was the only time Dominique Wilkins has ever represented the franchise at the drawing. Guess who is going to Secaucus this year? The Human Highlight Film.

The other reason is this: since 1994, the team with the fourth-best chance to win the lottery has never ended up in the top spot. The four spot is due son. It is four's time to shine. Fo, fo, fo.

Any questions? Leave them in the comments, and I will try to answer them.

Boy, last night was something else, wasn't it? Who would have thought when the playoffs started that Golden State would beat Dallas, the best team in the league during the regular season? And really, they didn't just beat them - they dominated. Both of the Mavs' victories in this series were in doubt until very late, while Golden State coasted to two blowouts wins and took control in both of their other wins as well. The result of the series was no fluke - the Warriors were the better team.

Congrats to Don Nelson and his Bay-area Ballers. They earned the right to advance with their fearlessness and their tremendous play.

Watching the game last night though, I couldn't help but think about our Hawks (who swept Golden State during the regular season, in case you forgot).

As an employee of the Hawks, I am often accused of being a party-line tower and a hopeless optimist when it comes to the present and future fortunes of the franchise. I am accused of glossing over the harsh facts of our recent struggles while always predicting that the Messianic Age for the team is just around the corner.

I am an optimist - I won't deny that. But after witnessing Golden State pull off perhaps the greatest upset in NBA history last night, it reminds me of why I believe.

Things can change, and they can change in a hurry.

Look at Golden State's franchise - the continuous victims of their own institutional indecision, they have gone through management and roster overhauls on a continuous loop for almost 15 years. Who could have predicted they'd be standing where they were last night? As late as March 4, the team was on a six-game losing streak, their record stood at 26-35, and they had recently gutted the team in yet another desperate attempt to change the fortunes of a cursed franchise. The playoffs were a pipe dream, just like they have been every season since 1994.

Now look where they stand. The first eight-seed to beat a one-seed in a best-four-of-seven. Their fans, who had every reason to be pessimistic and indifferent after so many years of frustration and failure, are suddenly part of maybe the best home-court advantage in the NBA.

Watching the frenzied crowd celebrate their team's achievement last night, it made me think, why not us?

I'm not saying the Hawks are set up to pull off some sort of similar miracle upset next season, or that there isn't a lot of work to be done this summer to get the team closer to where we want them to be.

All I know is, in two months time the Warriors went from one of the NBA's bigger disappointments to the story of the season, and the excitement of what they've accomplished, regardless of how it plays out over the rest of the playoffs, will certainly carry into next season and beyond. The future is bright in Golden State, a statement that would have been met with skepticism and sarcasm until only very recently.

So I guess my main point, in conclusion, is take heart, Hawks fans. Just because things have been bad for us recently doesn't mean it will always be so. If it can happen to them, it can happen to us.

Things can change in a hurry.

Well, Luol Deng won the NBA's Sportsmanship Award today, beating out our own Joe Johnson amongst others. For being selected a finalist, the NBA will still donate $10,000 to the charity of Joe's choice.

Personally, I'd love it if Joe reacted to losing this award by trashing a hotel room or disparaging Deng, I suppose that would go against the spirit of the whole thing.

He wuz robbed, says I. I'm not saying Josh should have been a first-teamer, but I definitely think someone who finished second in the league in blocked shots would garner more recognition for his efforts than he received.

Hoping to get some clarification on the subject, we reached out to 82games.com, a great basketball website that does some pretty incredible statistical analysis of the game behind this game we call NBA Basketball.

I posted on our front page the Q & A we did with them - you should check it out. From what I read of their responses, it sounds like Josh is well on his way to becoming a dominant player on the defensive end of the court and perhaps a future fixture on the all-league defensive squads.

Check it out!
 

Another team finds a defeat at the hands of the Hawks to be amongst their worst of the season!

Much like the Clippers loss to the ATL helped doom them to a playoff-less fate, so too did the Sacramento Kings find themselves humiliated by our birds of prey, at least according to the Kings blog Sactown Royalty.

The blog rates their offensive performance in the Hawks 99-76 pasting of the Kings at Philips on March 18 as the team's second worst performance on the season.

By the way, I know we don't have a ton to brag about from this past season, but let the record show that we swept the Warriors, the team that may take down the #1 seed Mavericks tonight, in 2006-07.