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4 Weeks Till Camp...
Posted by: Micah Hart on September 3, 2008 at 11:06PM AFT

I hope everyone had a good Labor Day weekend. Mine was spent doing a whole lotta nothin, which is just the way I like it. Things around the office are starting to pick up now, as we say goodbye to summer hours and really get in depth in our planning for the 2008-09 season. It's crazy to think the new year is nearly upon us; it doesn't feel that long ago that we were duking it out with the Celtics in the Eastern Conference Playoffs.

Nevertheless here we are, four weeks away from the beginning of training camp (Media Day is Monday, Sept. 29, with the first practice set for Tuesday the 30th).

As we begin to look ahead, I know there are several questions on the minds of Hawks fans. Here are couple that are on my mind:

1. Which Hawks players should we expect to improve in 2008-09?
Obviously, you'd like to think they all can, but let's be realistic. Not every Hawks player will have a career-year next season. At this point, I think you can say that guys like Mike Bibby and Joe Johnson are who they are, and I don't expect them to do anything much differently than they have in the past (not that that's a bad thing). Having said that, I remember one thing specifically from talking to new Hawks GM Rick Sund back in June - that because of the team's youth, they are capable of taking a big step forward simply because there are so many players on the roster on the upslope of their careers.

I think it's reasonable to expect improvement from Al Horford, Acie Law, Josh Smith, and Marvin Williams. Of that group, my gut tells me we'll see the biggest leap from Horford. Last season Horford was somewhat of an afterthought on the offensive end, but I expect (or at least hope) that he will be featured more prominently this year in the post. His post moves are still developing, but he already has a big enough arsenal to score consistently against the best defenders in the league (something he proved against the Celtics).

2. How will we make up for the loss of Josh Childress?
Hawks broadcaster Steve Smith liked to call Chills the "Baseline Bum" for all the work he did from the corners in, and his contributions from those spots will be missed. Maurice Evans, signed from Orlando, will be the player who presumably will be asked to pitch in the most. Let's take a look at their seasons last year via my favorite tool, the hotspot:


 

Childress scored almost twice as many buckets around the basket, but Evans made up for it by sniping from distance with much more frequency and accuracy (I should note these aren't quite apples-to-apples comparisons, as Childress played abut 500 more minutes). In particular, we see Evans' preference for the corners, which makes me think he can make up a good bit of the offense missing from Childress' departure.

In my mind, I figure the place we'll miss Childress the most is on the offensive glass, where last season he was the best in the league amongst guards by a wide margin (2.3 a game, with the Warriors' Monta Ellis a distant second at 1.6). However, in looking at the statistics a little closer, I noticed who was the 6th best offensive-rebounding guard - Maurice Evans, who nabbed 1.2 offensive boards in only 22.9 minutes per game. I admit it's a little crude on the math, but extrapolate Evans' rebound-rate up to Chills' minutes and he ends up at 1.6 a game, right where Ellis is. Evans alone can't make up for Childress' prowess on the boards, but hopefully guys like Al Horford, Zaza Pachulia, and Randolph Morris will be able to eat up a few more of those as well.

What questions do you have going in to 2008-09?

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